Event Neutral
Started 2026-11-13

What will the Fed decide on December 9?

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Base rate

Since 1994 the Fed has been in today's position 20 times: a hold, one meeting after a hike. Next it held 8 times, hiked 25bp 9 times and more than 25bp 3 times; it never cut.1 The model adjusts from there for what the Fed has signaled, what has happened since the last meeting, and the chance of a crisis.

The forecast

DateCut >25Cut 25HoldHike 25Hike >25
2026-11-130.3%0.2%3.5%88.0%8.0%

Inputs

Why these numbers
Base rate: 20 meetings
Meetings after a hold whose last move was a hike, one hold since. After longer pauses the Fed mostly held again, and every cut came after four holds or more.1
Fed signal: tightening
A tightening signal in the minutes or statement came before 40 of 44 hikes and 34 of 148 holds since 1999.2 The October statement gives no direction and its minutes are due Nov 18;5 voters' speeches since then lean toward a hike.7,8
Unemployment: flat
4.1% in October, down 0.1 point.3 Flat unemployment came before 76% of hikes and 58% of holds. Inflation, payrolls and financial conditions did not improve the historical test and are left out.
Crisis tail: 1.3%
About 6 crises in 33 years; 9 moves between meetings, 8 of them cuts.4
Hold: 3.5%, 28% of the model's 12.4%
Given the hold at the last meeting, the lean of a wide majority of voters toward a hike, and the end of year projections, this needs to be revised down substantially.
The September projections' median put the end-2026 rate one hike above today's range.6
Hike >25bp: 8%, down from the model's 22.1%
None of the conditions are in place to warrant a 50 basis point hike. Nobody aside from one partial mention is calling for it. The historical precedent is that the conditions need to be firmly in place. Urgency. And we're not seeing that right now.
The partial mention is Waller's: 50bp "should be considered" if October core CPI ran around 0.3%;7 it did.9
Weak points
  • The base rate rests on 20 meetings, and its 3 large hikes are all from 1994-95.
  • The signal labels are one reader's judgment; today's rests on speeches until the minutes are out.
  • The layers overlap but are combined as separate evidence, which can overstate confidence.
  • The Warsh Fed gives no forward guidance and has four meetings of history.
What would change the forecast
  • Nov 18: October minutes: how many expect a December hike; any mention of a larger one.
  • Nov 25: October PCE.
  • Dec 4: November jobs report.
  • To Nov 27: voters' speeches. The blackout runs Nov 28 to Dec 10.10
Update log
  • 2026-11-13 · Model set: base rate, Fed signal (tightening), unemployment (flat), crisis tail 1.3%; judgment Hold 3.5%, Hike >25bp 8%.
Something missing? Suggest an improvement

Suggest a change on GitHub, or copy the repository and send your version (how to contribute).

Sources

  1. FRED. Federal funds target range, upper limit (DFEDTARU), and target rate (DFEDTAR); meeting dates from the FOMC calendars.
  2. Federal Reserve. FOMC statements and minutes, 1999-2026.
  3. BLS. The Employment Situation, October 2026; earlier values as first published, from ALFRED.
  4. Federal Reserve. FOMC historical materials, and the press release for each move between meetings.
  5. Federal Reserve. FOMC statement, 2026-10-28.
  6. Federal Reserve. Summary of Economic Projections, 2026-09-16.
  7. Waller, 2026-11-10. The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism.
  8. Logan, 2026-11-10. Economic and monetary policy outlook.
  9. BLS. Consumer Price Index, October 2026.
  10. FOMC. Policy on External Communications of Committee Participants, para. 7.

Last updated 2026-11-13

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.